The director of public health says the focus needs to shift to prevention, or the system will become 'overwhelmed' within years.

Dr Nicola Brink is echoing comments made about the NHS years ago, and says healthcare in Guernsey has to transform from a national sickness service to one that promotes wellbeing:

“We cannot continue to focus on acute care at the expense of prevention. We need to shift the focus where prevention of disease and ill-health is given equal consideration to the management of acute conditions.

If we don’t, our health and care services will become overwhelmed in the next 20 years. Impossibly difficult choices will need to be made. For example healthcare services may need to be rationed."

She says a healthy population is better for the economy as more people are productive:

"We need to have a longer-term vision and not just focus on short-term ‘fixes’. If we don’t, we will face a crisis within the next 20 years. The hospital that we are building now will not cope.“

Dr Brink warns that the incidence of chronic illnesses will increase over the coming 20 years, which is the period that has been modelled.

Dementia rates, for example, could increase by 60% on current figures.

She says that basic health promotion measures are key to improving health, like not smoking, drinking within recommended guidelines, being careful about diet and exercising or moving more.

“Working across the whole of the States of Guernsey, together with the wider island community, means that we could achieve these goals in the next five to ten years. Failing to do so will mean that we leave a larger burden of ill-health for future generations. This is neither fair, nor ethical.”